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After netting nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

Although this isn't his strongest opening to a campaign - he found the net 11 times in his first seven games in 2022-23 and 10 last season - it still puts him three strikes clear in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that not one of his nine strikes have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the honor so quickly into the term.

Firstly, the total of conversions he has currently registered - and, equally significant, the number and quality of chances he is getting.

Secondly, the modest opening his usual rivals for the prize have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) represents how many goals a Premier League player has typically netted from the total and standard of scoring situations he's encountered.

This doesn't represent a number randomly picked by statistics boffins, but by historical Premier League data.

And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this season from open play, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more excellent scoring situations to convert than any other player.

In fact, even if Haaland didn't excel at scoring from situations than anyone else in the league, he would nevertheless have converted significantly more goals as everyone else.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is illustrated by examining the total and standard of scoring situations that players have had in the English first division so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this term, 12 more than all other attackers.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had in fact attempted more open-play attempts at this stage in the previous two campaigns (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What's particularly exceptional even for Haaland is the caliber of opportunities he has had this season. His attempts have had an xG value of an average of 0.27.

This statistic indicates is that players have historically converted the attempts he's taken at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Of players to take at least 10 shots, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to score on average - thanks to a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of an average of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per attempt he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the chances he has had in the current season have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.

Past Performance Analysis

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as mentioned above, not uncommon for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last term he had registered ten strikes - four more than every other footballer and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Liverpool forward who secured the scoring title with 29 conversions, seven additional compared to the Manchester City striker.

This season, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Actually this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League season the Egyptian attacker has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has started slowly either. When examining at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last term, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Be it because of injuries - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - long-running transfer sagas in one particular striker's situation or simply because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

Although the Norwegian appears the distinct favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is awarded to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That competition is considerably more open at this initial phase because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have similarly opened in great form, with eleven and nine strikes respectively.

The reality Haaland has scored so many times and has the greatest expected goals of the three players without yet taking any spot-kicks makes him the favourite.

However, because the English and French stars are two of the best goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.