Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
